Russias Spring-Summer Campaign Failed to Achieve Significant Gains: Report

Russia’s offensive this spring–summer has failed to achieve significant gains, and the rate of Russian military advance last month “is a fraction” of the gain achieved in June 2025, according to analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).According to the ISW’s Russian offensive campaign assessment published on July 1, Ukraine has also continued to intensify its long-range intensive campaign strikes into Russian territory, particularly against Russian oil and gas infrastructure and military assets.The think tank said it analyzed evidence indicating that the Russian military had seized or infiltrated 11.75 square miles in June 2026, compared with 185.81 square miles in June 2025—approximately one-sixteenth of last year’s total.“Russia’s spring-summer 2026 offensive has failed to achieve operationally significant gains thus far, and Russian forces’ rate of advance in June 2026 is a fraction of the rate of advance that Russian forces achieved in June 2025,” the ISW said.Between January and June, Russian gains were 240.39 square miles—only 28.43 percent of the 845.51 square miles gained in the same period last year.The think tank described Russia’s gains as “gradual and creeping” over the past year, with its rate of advance decreasing since November 2025. The ISW said that Russian forces’ main territorial gains have been in the Donetsk Oblast near Kostyantynivka.Ukraine’s Aerial Strike Campaigns“Ukraine continued to intensify its intermediate- and long-range strike campaigns in June 2026, which are having cascading effects on Russian logistics and battlefield operations as well as causing gasoline shortages and economic frictions across Russia and occupied Ukraine,” the ISW found.The report said that Ukrainian forces had conducted 303 intermediate-range strikes against Russian targets in occupied Ukraine last month, up from 210 in May. The ISW added that Ukraine will likely intensify its intermediate-range strike campaigns in the coming months.The think tank said that Ukrainian forces have been steadily increasing the range, intensity, and volume of long-range strike campaigns within Russian territory, particularly against Russian military assets and oil infrastructure. It said that Ukraine had conducted at least 31 strikes against Russian oil infrastructure and at least 47 against military assets in June.“Ukrainian forces now regularly strike deep into the Russian rear, including in rear areas that were previously safely out of range of Ukrainian strike vehicles, for example, Moscow and Chelyabinsk cities,” the report said.On July 1, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Ukrainian forces had struck an oil refinery in Ufa, which he said was one of Russia’s largest producers of lubricants.Zelenskyy also said in a post on X that Ukraine had struck a strategic military-industrial complex facility in the Penza region, which is involved in developing and manufacturing components for missiles.“Every day, our plan for imposing Ukrainian long-range sanctions is being implemented,” he said.Russian Strikes on KyivRussia bombarded Kyiv in the early hours of the morning of July 2, launching hundreds of drones and dozens of missiles at the Ukrainian capital, resulting in the deaths of at least 18 people and scores more injured, with several residential buildings being damaged.Thursday’s attack caused the widest destruction so far this year and was the deadliest since at least May, when 24 people were killed in a strike that hit an apartment block.The Ukrainian air force said that Russia launched 74 missiles and 496 drones overnight, with the number of ballistic missiles unusually high and the interception rate for them low.The Russian defense ministry said it hit energy and military facilities around the Ukrainian capital, as well as military airports in several regions across the country, including ⁠Poltava and Dnipropetrovsk.The ministry said the strikes were in ⁠retaliation for Ukraine’s attack on ⁠civil ​infrastructure.Attacks on Russia and Ukraine have resulted in civilian casualties, but both Ukraine and Moscow have denied deliberately targeting civilians.Reuters contributed to this report.