News Analysis
There have been several reports over the past week that some federal and provincial Conservative campaigners are urging the Poilievre Conservatives to pivot to focus more on the Trump factor as the Liberals rise in polls.
But David Coletto, CEO of the polling company Abacus Data, says that this won’t help the Conservatives gain an edge over the Liberals, as the fleeing support from the NDP, which bolsters the Liberal vote, is a bigger factor. Instead, he suggests they should keep the focus on the “change” factor.
“The biggest factor in this federal election is the complete collapse of the NDP,” Coletto said on the X platform on March 29. “Fighting on the Trump field doesn’t solve that problem for the CPC [Conservative Party of Canada].”
And the Conservatives’ announcements over the past few days seem to have been focused on the “change” factor.
Falling NDP Support
The Liberals’ steep fall in the polls last year has seen a sharp reversal since Justin Trudeau announced his plan to resign in January, and with Mark Carney taking over as new Liberal leader and prime minister in March. A March 27 poll by Abacus Data shows support for the Liberals rose from 27 percent in January to 41 percent by March 25, while the Conservatives fell from 46 percent to 37 percent, and the NDP dropped from 18 percent to 11 percent. While the percentage change for the Conservatives compared to their January standing is a decrease of 20 percent, the decline for the NDP is 40 percent.
After Carney won the Liberal leadership race and was sworn in as prime minister, along with his cabinet, on March 14, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh said the exclusion of former Liberal House leader Karina Gould from the new cabinet sent “a message to progressive Liberals that there’s no place for you in this new Liberal party.” Gould had run in the Liberal leadership race with more progressive policies compared to the other candidates.
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To be sure, Carney’s cabinet still maintains key cabinet figures with progressive bona fides, including former Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault, who has said in the House of Commons he is a “proud socialist.”
But what has been driving the NDP supporters to the Carney Liberals has been primarily the Trump factor. Even former NDP Leader Tom Mulcair has said if a party can’t form a government “that can take on Trump, then get out of the way and let the only real contenders have at it.”
“I’m hearing even from die hard, lifelong ‘Dippers’ (as we jokingly called ourselves), that the risks to Canada are so great that in this election, they’re going to be helping and voting for the Liberals,” Mulcair wrote in a March 24 op-ed for Bloomberg.
The Trump Factor and Parties’ Messaging
Shortly after Donald Trump’s presidential election win in November and the start of his tariff threats against Canada, the Conservatives first focused their messaging on their plan to cut taxes and efforts to attract investment. “Trump wants our jobs,” Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre told Corus radio on Nov. 15, adding that as prime minister he would make Canada competitive to ensure that doesn’t happen.
But as Trump ramped up his rhetoric on tariffs against Canada and his “51st state” comments, the issue gained more importance and was reported as a priority in public opinion polls.
It also dominated the Liberal leadership race that was launched after Trudeau announced his intention to resign. Former Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, who was a leadership candidate, said on the campaign trail that Trump posed the greatest risk to Canada since World War II, while Carney said Canada is facing its “greatest crisis of our lifetime” with Trump.
With the change in the environment, also came a change in the Tory messaging.
On Feb. 15, Poilievre held a “Canada First” rally in Ottawa, marking a change from previous rallies where the key slogan was “Axe the Tax”—referring to the Liberals’ carbon tax—with strong rebuffs to Trump’s comments. “Never confuse our kindness with weakness,” Poilievre said.
But as the Liberal leadership race continued and Carney became prime minister, the polling trend showed a sustained rise for the Liberals, with their momentum even pushing them past the Tories in most polls.
A March 27 Toronto Star article quoted former CPC campaigner Kory Teneycke, who led the campaign of the Ontario Progressive Conservatives as they won successive majority governments, saying that there is “every buzzer and alarm” going off in the Conservative campaign.
From a policy standpoint, as the United States takes on a more protectionist approach, both the Conservatives and the Liberals have been announcing measures meant to develop Canada’s economic capability and diversify trading markets. This includes both parties making it a priority to remove interprovincial trade barriers, announcing initiatives to build “energy corridors,” and establishing stronger trade relations with other allies.
As prime minister, Carney has announced new support packages for workers and businesses impacted by tariffs, saying he will use proceeds of retaliatory tariffs to support Canadians, and discussed building national trade corridors with premiers. On the campaign trail, he has said he would build more infrastructure, including developing ports, railroads, airports, and highways, to increase Canada’s capability in trade, and increase cooperation among ports.
Poilievre has also said he would use proceeds from tariffs to support impacted workers. A key Conservative policy announced on March 30 would remove the capital gains tax for proceeds reinvestment in Canada. As well, Poilievre has said he would remove the industrial carbon tax and eliminate the the Impact Assessment Act and federal cap on emissions in the oil and gas sector to allow more growth in the energy sector, as the Trump administration drives its “unleashing American energy” agenda and lowers taxes.
But it’s on the anti-Trump posture that Poilievre is facing pressure to step up.
The March 27 Toronto Star article quotes Teneycke and other Conservative sources as saying they want to see Poilievre focus more on Trump.
But the next day, the Conservatives returned to one of their key Trudeau-era campaign points, emphasizing the need to rein in crime, and promising life sentences for major drug traffickers.
Poilievre on March 31 dismissed calls for a pivot to have more forceful messaging on Trump, saying he will remain focused on the Liberal government’s performance on crime, drugs, housing costs, and affordability, and his promise to “restore Canada’s promise.”
Abacus Data’s Coletto said in a commentary for the Hub that their polling shows 54 percent of Canadians say they “definitely want a change,” and while that may be down from the 57 percent at the start of the election campaign, it’s “still high enough to find an audience.”
“With the caveat that there rarely are easy answers for a party whose electoral standing is slipping, there are clear signs in the data that by abandoning their campaign for change and focusing on countering Trump, the Conservatives might actually further worsen their standing with the electorate,” Coletto wrote.
He says factors contributing to this conclusion include the fact that some in the Conservative base like Trump, and ramping up the rhetoric against him may push those voters toward alternatives such as joining the PPC. As well, he writes, increased anxiety about Trump adds to the support for the Liberals, which Poilievre risks invoking if he adds to that fear with ramped up comments on the U.S. president.
“If the Conservatives concede that this election is primarily about Trump, they let the Liberals dictate the terms of engagement on the ground where the Conservatives are at a serious disadvantage,” Coletto added.
