Updated CFTC Rules Could Restrict War, Terrorism Bets in Prediction Markets

An app for Kalshi is shown in Chicago on Feb. 25, 2026. Scott Olson/Getty ImagesBetting on war, assassinations, and terrorism could be restricted in prediction markets under a new regulatory framework proposed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on June 10.Prediction markets have exploded in popularity in recent years as individuals place bets on everything from who will win a congressional race to how many times the Federal Reserve chairman will say “inflation.”