One Nation on Track for 60 Seats, Neck and Neck With Labor: Poll

A new poll suggests Australia could be headed for a hung Parliament, with the conservative-leaning One Nation almost neck and neck wit Labor, set to win 60 seats and Labor reduced to 68The new data suggests both parties would still be short of a clear majority—to form government in Australia a party needs to win a minimum 76 seats in the lower house, over half of the total 150.If the current results were to eventuate, Pauline Hanson’s party would need to strike a deal with a much-reduced Liberal-National Coalition to govern.The “mega-poll” by DemosAU/Capital Brief, which surveyed over 9,300 people from May to July 2026. The company used complex statistical modelling to predict the outcome in all 150 federal seats.It shows One Nation on 30 percent support, up 3 points since DemosAU’s February/March poll, Labor on 26 percent (down 3), and the Liberal-National Coalition on 21 percent (no change).The Greens are plateauing on 13 percent (up 1) and “others” at 10 percent (also up 1).One Nation’s rise is again confirmed to be at the expense of both the traditional main parties, with Labor winning 26 fewer seats than it did at the 2025 election, and the Coalition losing 30.The Greens gain 2 but others—the Climate 200-backed “Teals” and independents—lose half their current 12 seats.City vs Suburban vs Regional DivideThere are distinct geographical differences in support, with One Nation gaining 41 percent of the primary vote in regional and rural seats, compared to 20 percent for the Liberals and 18 percent for Labor. One Nation is leading in 39 of 41 such seats, and DemosAU says there is a “live possibility” of a clean sweep of all 41.Meanwhile, Labor is leading in 34 of the 45 inner metropolitan seats with 31 percent support, followed by the Liberals on 21, the Greens on 18 and One Nation on 19.That means outer metropolitan seats are likely to decide who forms the government, and in these, One Nation leads on 30 percent of the primary vote, Labor has 28 percent, Liberals 21 percent, Greens 12 percent and others 9 percent.DemosAU says its modelling indicates Labor still retains 34 of the 64 outer metro seats, but One Nation has made significant inroads, leading in 21.“The most significant finding is that One Nation is now leading across many outer metro seats in Brisbane and Perth and also a few in outer Sydney and outer Melbourne,” according to DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos.“It is in these seats which One Nation needs to win to have a chance of forming at least a minority government.”Which States, Territories Are Swinging to One Nation?There are also significant variations across the states and territories. One Nation’s strongest state is Queensland, where it has risen to 34 percent support and is leading in 20 of the state’s 30 seats.The Coalition has staged a comeback in Victoria, where it has halved the primary gap between itself and One Nation and is only trailing by 3 percentage points.Of the 13 seats where the Coalition is leading, eight of these are in Victoria.In Western Australia, One Nation’s primary vote has risen five percentage points, mostly at the expense of Labor, while in Tasmania, it has enjoyed a similar swing, propelling it into the lead in the three northern and central Tasmanian seats, with Labor only holding a firm lead in one.The results for One Nation suggest Hanson has not suffered any loss of support over her recent trip to Britain where she appeared on a podcast hosted by influencer and activist Tommy Robinson, in which she reiterated she would ban the wearing of burqas and prevent immigrants from “radical Islamic countries.”Despite criticism, One Nation maintains strong opposition to high immigration volumes and multiculturalism, with Hanson calling for a “monocultural” society in an address to the National Press Club last month, saying “Australians must live under the one cultural umbrella.”