IEA Cuts Russian Oil Output Forecasts Due to Ukrainian Attacks

Russian oil output will drop around 3 percent to 8.9 million barrels per day (bpd) this year due to Ukrainian drone attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on July 10.Ukraine has ramped up drone strikes on its enemy’s energy facilities, including oil refineries, pushing to throttle Moscow’s economy and war effort.“Continued strikes on refineries, storage facilities, and transport infrastructure underpin a weaker production outlook, and we have accordingly cut our Russian supply outlook for this year and next, by 85,000 barrels per day and 150,000 bpd respectively, to average 8.8 million bpd over the forecast period,” the IEA said in its monthly report.The global energy watchdog expects Russian oil output to hit 8.9 million barrels per day this year and 8.8 million in 2027, down from 9.2 million in 2025.Russia’s June crude production increased by 120,000 bpd from May to 8.86 million bpd, according to the IEA, which is 900,000 bpd below the quota set by the OPEC+ group for that month.All figures on Russian oil are based on estimates, as Moscow stopped publishing data on oil output in April 2023, just over a year after it launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.Moscow has introduced a temporary ban on the export of diesel and other fuel to ensure an adequate domestic supply, amid ongoing drone strikes from Ukraine on Russian energy infrastructure.The Russian government said in a July 8 statement that it had issued a ban on the export of diesel, marine fuel, and similar products until July 31.“The decision was made to maintain stability in the domestic fuel market. The restrictions will not apply to diesel fuel exported from Russia under international intergovernmental agreements,” the statement said.Systematic drone strikes on Russian oil and gas infrastructure have resulted in fuel shortages in parts of the country, and these recently announced measures are aimed at mitigating the impact of those shortages.During a televised government meeting on Wednesday, chaired by Russian President Vladimir Putin, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that the fuel situation remained complex and that “it is clear that the current situation ​at filling stations is causing concern among the public.”Novak said that the diesel fuel export ban “will make it possible to increase supplies to the domestic market.”He added that Russia would start importing fuel this month.During the meeting, Putin accused Kyiv of attempting to damage Russia’s economy and to “create a sense of anxiety in society.”“We all understand that this goal is unattainable,” he said. “The resilience of Russia’s power ​system is very high—among the highest in the world.”Just two days later, on July 10, Novak announced that the export ban had been expanded to include gasoline as well as diesel, Russian state media outlet TASS reports.Ukraine says the strikes are to disrupt Russia’s ability to wage war and force Moscow to the negotiating table.Ukraine continues to conduct attacks on Russian infrastructure, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy saying in a July 9 post on X that Ukraine’s defense forces carried out drone strikes on two oil depots, a reserve fuel storage facility, an oil pumping station, and an oil loading terminal in various parts of Russia hundreds of miles from the front line.The Ukrainian military on July 9 also confirmed that it had struck a dozen or more Russian tankers with drones in the Sea of Azov overnight. The strikes are part of a wider campaign to disrupt fuel supplies to Russian forces, as well as to isolate Crimea, which Moscow annexed in 2014.Victoria Friedman and Reuters contributed to this report.