CDU is heading into what are likely to be lengthy coalition talks without a strong negotiating hand.
Germany’s center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has emerged as the winner in the federal election, and Alternative for Germany (AfD) came in second with its best ever result, projected results show.
On Sunday, Friedrich Merz’s CDU/CSU bloc capitalized on widespread discontent over inflation, rising energy costs, and immigration policies, and earned 28.7 percent of the vote, followed by the AfD with 19.8 percent, the projection published by public broadcaster ZDF showed.
“Tonight we will celebrate, and from tomorrow we start working … The world out there is not waiting for us,” Merz, 69, told supporters.
Merz is heading into what are likely to be lengthy coalition talks without a strong negotiating hand. While his CDU/CSU emerged as the largest bloc, it scored its second worst post-war result.
It remains unclear whether Merz will need one or two partners to form a majority. A three-way coalition would likely be much more unwieldy, hampering Germany’s ability to show clear leadership.
In the past few years, the coalition involving Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s center-left Social Democrats (SPD), the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP), and the Green Party had lost ground.
Scholz’s SPD tumbled to their worst result since World War II, with 16.4 percent of the vote share, according to the ZDF projection, while the Greens were on 12.3 percent and the far-left Die Linke party on 8.9 percent of the vote.
The Free Democrats (FDP) and newcomer Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance party hovered around the 5 percent threshold to enter parliament.
Merz inherits a Germany that has been dogged by economic woes and multiple high-profile terror attacks.
Europe’s largest manufacturing economy is in its second year of contraction, struggling with the loss of affordable Russian gas, historic Volkswagen plant closures, and fierce competition from cheaper Chinese electric vehicles.
The country has gone through a major population change, with Germany’s net population increasing by more than 3.5 million between 2014 and 2024, driven entirely by migration.
In 2015, then-Chancellor Angela Merkel accepted more than 1 million Syrian refugees into Germany.
According to a recent YouGov poll, 80 percent of Germans believe that immigration levels have been too high over the past decade.
Merz and the CDU will also face challenges in forming a stable coalition government. Potential partners include the FDP and the more moderate wing of the Greens, though negotiations are expected to be complex.
Merz has ruled out the party forming a government with the AfD.
The AfD campaigned for strict border controls, a reduction in asylum-seekers, and ditching net zero climate requirements.
There are questions about whether the CDU under Merz will absorb some of the AfD’s messaging.
Merz has taken a hawkish stance on immigration, but has wavered on issues such as nuclear energy.
Ralph Schoellhammer, political theorist and head of the Center for Applied History at Mathias Corvinus Collegium, previously told The Epoch Times that the most likely scenario is a coalition consisting of the CDU, SPD, and FDP.
Another possibility is involving the CDU, Greens, and FDP.
Schoellhammer said that people will vote for Merz because they want a center-right government, but they’re probably going to end up “getting a slightly left-of-center government because he’s standing alone.”
He said Merz has “completely destroyed negotiations” by stating that he would never govern with the AfD.
“He’s telling the Greens and the Social Democrats, ‘I can only negotiate with you,’” Schoellhammer said.
Under German rules, smaller parties need to meet a 5 percent vote threshold to get into parliament, which can make all the difference for potential future coalition negotiations.
Reuters contributed to this report.
