China Has More to Lose in Global Trade War Than US, Researchers Say

Containers are seen at the port in Shanghai on Sept. 8, 2025. STR/AFP via Getty ImagesIf trade disputes between the United States and China spiraled into total export-import bans, both nations’ economies would be devastated. But China’s economy—reliant on exporting products that can be manufactured elsewhere—would suffer far more and for far longer, researchers say.According to Dartmouth Professor Stephen Brooks, if the United States and its allies imposed “an economic cutoff” on China, damage to its economy would be five to seven times more than damage to the United States’ economy, and its gross domestic product would degrade 15 percent to 51 percent within a year.