Canada’s spy agency warns that colliding global developments make the Arctic an “attractive, strategic and vulnerable destination” for foreign adversaries seeking to establish a presence in Canada.
A newly released Canadian Security Intelligence Service assessment flags the environment, critical infrastructure, economic activity and geopolitics as converging factors making the region susceptible to threats from abroad.
It sees resource extraction projects, increasing ship traffic, the building of ports and possible militarization of the Arctic as some of the avenues nefarious actors could use to gain a foothold in the region.
Once established in the North, rivals could use these opportunities to “generate substantial influence and interference opportunities,” CSIS warns.
The Canadian Press used the Access to Information Act to obtain the CSIS brief, “Issues & Vulnerabilities in Canada’s Arctic,” produced last April as an elaborate infographic.
It is perhaps the most extensive public account to date of the spy service’s concerns about espionage and malign foreign influence in the Arctic.
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Melting sea ice due to climate change likely will lead to more people in the Arctic, the opening of new shipping routes and fresh exploitation of mineral deposits, the brief says.
Natural resources, including oil and gas reserves, attract foreign investment, potentially threatening regional interests, CSIS warns.
“Threat actors could leverage resource exploitation to gain persistent access to remote and strategically valuable territory.”
The spy service’s brief also says:
— The difficulty and expense of fixing vulnerabilities in crucial telecommunication systems in the North can create serious cybersecurity risks;
— Places suitable for building deepwater ports in the Arctic are attractive to foreign actors who seek control of strategic shipping locations, and creating unofficial ports of entry to Canada could undermine border security;
— Adversaries might make substantial investments, ostensibly to remedy energy supply-chain disruptions in the North, but “with ulterior motives”;
— The presence of hostile-state armed forces could lead to militarization of the Arctic, driving geopolitical tensions that might lead to conflict.
CSIS says any one of these points of vulnerability could be targeted by a foreign adversary or made worse by benign activities in the region.
“Regardless of the intent behind the potentially harmful activity to the Arctic and Northern Canada, repercussions could be devastating for Canada’s northern and Arctic residents, ecosystem, assets and interests,” the brief says.
The economic and strategic importance of the Arctic has been steadily growing over the last 15 years, said CSIS spokesperson Lindsay Sloane.
Threats to the Arctic stem not only from strategic competitors’ military capabilities and the effects of climate change, but also increasingly from espionage, foreign interference and illicit economic activities, all of which pose national security dangers, Sloane said.
In addition to the historical military concern posed to the North by Russia, China has increased its focus on the region, Sloane pointed out. “CSIS continues to detect, deter and counter foreign interference activities by hostile states targeting the Arctic.”
In Canada’s foreign policy blueprint for the Arctic, published late last year, Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly said Canada was at an inflection point in the region.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has made co-operation with Moscow in the Arctic “exceedingly difficult for the foreseeable future,” Joly said.
At the same time, non-Arctic states, including China, are seeking greater influence in Arctic governance, meaning Canada must emphasize collaboration with allies in the region, she added.
Defence Minister Bill Blair will be in Iqaluit on Thursday for an announcement on the Canadian Armed Forces’ presence across the Arctic.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre recently proposed building a new military base in Iqaluit as part of his party’s Arctic security plan.
Nunavut Premier P.J. Akeeagok welcomed the political attention but said such decisions must involve significant input from northerners.
Nunavut looks forward to working with Canada’s next prime minister on meaningful, nation-building investments that meet Arctic sovereignty and security goals, address NATO spending commitments and unlock economic potential, he said in a media statement last month.
“Nunavut is committed to ensuring Canada’s safety and security, including that of northerners, and to safeguarding the ability of Canada to defend both the Canadian Arctic and North America,” the premier said.
Sloane said CSIS works in partnership with territorial, provincial, local and indigenous governments to combat all threat activity in the Arctic. “This includes providing relevant information to help build resiliency against current and emerging threats.”
