Taiwan Invasion Could Cost China 100,000 Lives: Report

Chinese ships patrol as the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conduct military drills on Pingtan island—the closest point to Taiwan—in eastern Fujian Province, China, on Dec. 30, 2025. Adek Berry/AFP via Getty ImagesThe Chinese communist regime would suffer “massive” losses in a failed conflict over Taiwan, including the deaths of about 100,000 personnel, a Washington-based think tank warned in a report published on Jan. 5.The German Marshall Fund’s report, titled “If China Attacks Taiwan,” examines the repercussions for China under two scenarios—a “minor conflict” and a “major war”—occurring sometime between 2026 and 2030.