Bitwise Analyst: Bitcoin Is Best Value Since COVID Crash And Almost No One Sees It

Despite neutral global growth signals, Bitcoin is trading at crisis-level discounts, opening what Bitwise calls a rare buying window most investors are completely overlooking. Bitcoin is showing signs of a rare buying opportunity, according to André Dragosch, European Head of Research at Bitwise Asset Management. In a recent post on X, he noted that the cryptocurrency is trading as if much of the world’s bad economic news has already been priced in, creating a unique setup for investors. Using data from sources like Sentix, ISM, and the Philly Fed, Dragosch noted a gap between Bitcoin’s implied market expectations and broader macroeconomic indicators. This shows the market is factoring in a deeply pessimistic outlook, even as signals from surveys point to a more neutral global growth picture. This is probably the most important work I’ve done on #Bitcoin & Macro so far.It involves a lot of computation and is somewhat complex – because financial markets are complex at the end of the day.The question investors constantly face is:“𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝗻… pic.twitter.com/TUaFGM5SAT— André Dragosch, PhD⚡ (@Andre_Dragosch) November 28, 2025 Dragosch on Bitcoin: “Pricing in a recessionary growth environment” Dragosch explained that the current market feels similar to past dislocations, as it did in 2020 during the COVID-19 crash, but not because of a health crisis today. Instead, Bitcoin is trading as if a deep economic downturn is already underway. Bitcoin price chart in 2022. Source: TradingView He noted that the cryptocurrency appears to be “pricing in a recessionary growth environment,” suggesting that much of the negative macro news may already be reflected in prices. Recent market behavior indicates this setup: Bitcoin has dropped over 17% in the past 30 days following a $19 billion liquidation event in early October. The cryptocurrency briefly fell below $90,000 on November 20, before buyers stepped in to stabilize the market. Dragosch referenced March 2020, when Bitcoin rebounded sixfold, suggesting a potentially similar asymmetric risk-reward opportunity now. The CMC Crypto Fear and Greed Index stands at 20 (“Fear”), slightly above the year-to-date low of 10 recorded on November 22. Traders assign an 86.4% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut at the December meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Even with investor caution running high, Dragosch thinks the pessimism may be overdone. He suggested that global growth could pick up as the effects of earlier monetary stimulus work through the economy, following a pattern similar to the post-COVID recovery.