Chinas Lauded Trade Dominance Not Positive as It Seems

Despite recording an all-time high trade surplus in 2025, significant weakness lurks behind the surface glitz.Shipping containers and vehicles await their export at a port in Nanjing, eastern Jiangsu Province, China, on Dec. 9, 2025. AFP via Getty Images12/14/2025|Updated: 12/14/2025CommentaryChina is breaking export and trade records. For the first 11 months of 2025, sales of its products overseas topped a $3.4 trillion equivalent. The country’s cumulative surplus of exports over imports equaled $1.08 trillion.Milton Ezrati is a contributing editor at The National Interest, an affiliate of the Center for the Study of Human Capital at the University at Buffalo (SUNY), and chief economist for Vested, a New York-based communications firm. Before joining Vested, he served as chief market strategist and economist for Lord, Abbett & Co. He also writes frequently for City Journal and blogs regularly for Forbes. His latest book is “Thirty Tomorrows: The Next Three Decades of Globalization, Demographics, and How We Will Live.”Author’s Selected Articles